October 22, 2018
The 2018 Midterm elections are shaping up to be one of the most contested in years. Compounding this is massive turnout amongst voters of all affiliations. What are the reasons for this?
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America is still getting over the shock of Donald Trump's electoral college victory in the 2016 Presidental elections. The Democrats especially, cannot let go that their historic and heavily-favored candidate, Hillary Clinton, lost decisively with the Electoral College, even though she won the popular vote. It is meaningless because it does not determine how presidents are chosen in the United States. What is the reason that so many Americans are taking a keen interest and exude passion for what is normally a low voter turnout election, a non-presidential off-year election? I think for Democrats, the sting and shock of losing to Donald Trump, plus the emotional and heartfelt passion on both sides of the Kavanaugh Supreme Court confirmation fight, has energized their base. The party's voters want some sort of victory over a person and party that has taunted them for the past two years. Those 24 months have seen two Supreme Court justices confirmed to the highest court, which has skewed the court towards a more conservative bent, a tax cut that benefited corporations and wealthy individuals (which was very unpopular with Democrats), a high profile summit with nuclear-armed North Korea and its controversial leader Kim Jong-Un, and some Republican victories for congressional special elections. Democrats and their progressive base want to see GOP losses and Democratic gains throughout the legislative branch, so that could be the reason that there is significant interest from liberal voters.
What is the reason for the passionate interest from Trump supporters and Republicans in general? Usually, the President's party loses seats in off-year elections, and while it is expected, this year seems to be different. While some of the support is due to the Trump policy and political victories, what are the other reasons? I believe part of it is because President Trump enjoys intense loyalty from voters who swung the elections for him in 2016, and that loyalty has been very hard to break. His base tends to believe whatever he says and supports all his initiatives regardless of whether it enjoys broad support or not. Additionally, the president has what is most important right before election day, momentum. As mentioned in the previous paragraph, he has accomplished many of his campaign goals, specifically the Supreme Court (SCOTUS) and passage of a large tax cut by Congress, which he signed on his desk. If a President fulfills his campaign promises, and it is promoted during an election year, it bodes well for his base of support. The Kavanaugh confirmation hearings were emotional for everybody, both for Dr. Blasey Ford and Brett Kavanaugh's conservative allies and supporters. This has moved the needle as they say, and this upcoming Midterm election into one of the most intense in recent memory.
There are a few races to keep an eye on for November 6th:
(1) Florida Governor's race: Andrew Gillum (D) v Ron DeSantis (R). This race is too close to call either way (polling gives Gillum a slight edge), but even with the recent debates, the race will appear to hinge on either candidate screwing up with anything they say or do, and their error going viral, shifting the race to the opponent. National momentum from either party will tilt this tough race to its desired outcome for the DNC or RNC. However, after some consideration, I give this race a lean to the Democrats, and Andrew Gillum becoming Florida's first African American governor.
2) North Dakota Senate race: Heidi Heitkamp (D) v Kevin Cramer (R): A Democrat winning in North Dakota six years ago was a great, but shocking pick-up for President Obama's party in 2012. North Dakota is a conservative state, but Senator Heitkamp's win was a surprise get for the Democrats. This year, with her vote against Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation for the Supreme Court, along with her mistake of inadvertently releasing the names of protected sexual assault victims in a poorly chosen campaign ad, her run as North Dakota's senator appears to be coming to an end. Senator Heitkamp has suspended her campaign, and her fatal mistake has made her trail in the polls between 11 points (RealClearPolitics.com) and 16 points (fivethirtyeight.com). The Republicans will take this seat decisively.
3) Georgia Governor's race: Brian Kemp (R) v Stacey Abrams (D): Both RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight have seen polls go back and forth over the past few months, and it is considered a toss-up. There have been allegations of voter suppression by Mr. Kemp (Washington Post), who is currently Georgia's Secretary of State. If the allegations are proven true, or there is an air of convincing impropriety, it potentially could swing the election towards Stacey Abrams. However, Georgia is still surprisingly a safe conservative state (one which requires voters to show ID), but with the state's growing Hispanic population, coupled with the African-American vote, it may swing the election to the Democrats in the near future (perhaps within 8 years). However, for 2016, the governor's race will be given to the Republicans as a solid victory, barring any serious problems for Mr. Kemp.
Overall, based on my own impressions and projections, I believe the United States Senate will stay with the Republicans. With Democrats having to defend more seats, and the Republican incumbents doing well, I doubt the Democrats will have the horses to swing this chamber back to their control. The House is more competitive, and with the history of the past few decades showing that the President's party losing seats, it would be acceptable to project a Democratic House with Nancy Pelosi as Speaker. There is a caveat, based on my discussions earlier in this piece, with President Trump's recent political and policy victories, and an energized Republican electorate, I would not be surprised to see the GOP protect their control of the Lower House, although their margin of seats will most certainly shrink.
If the Republicans maintain control of all aspects of three branches of government, the Democrats could be exiled to the wilderness for at least 4 years. If the President's party continues to be dominant, I feel the Democrats will have no choice to figure out what kind of party they want to be. Since President Clinton forced the Democrats to become more business-friendly and moderate, the party of the working class has shunned its responsibility to protect the less fortunate and Americans who are marginalized in a rapidly changing society. One that is increasingly technologically advanced on a microeconomic level but has seen manufacturing and service economies drastically change. I don't know what their new positions will be, or whether they will be effective and popular.
That is why this election is so important for everyone who plans to vote. It will determine if there is a check on Republican dominance, who will most certainly use their power to dramatically change the political, business and societal landscape for America for at least a generation. If the Democrats do manage to win the House, they will aggressively use their power to check President Trump's controversial agenda and attempt to provide some relief to the middle and lower socioeconomic groups in America. Regardless of your political affiliation, this election will be a tipping point for the direction of the country for the foreseeable future.
Exciting Times!
