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Wednesday, August 11, 2021

Will Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC Ruin College Football?

 

August 11, 2021


The recent blockbuster news that college football bluebloods the University of Texas Longhorns and the Oklahoma University Sooners will leave their Big 12 athletic conference, and move to the Southeastern Conference (SEC), to drastically increase their annual revenue, has shocked the American sports world.  Critics, which include their old Big 12 schools, feel that this is a shameless money grab that discards old relationships. Will this ruin the beauty, pageantry, and spirit of college football?

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I was surprised myself when I heard that Texas and Oklahoma, two of college football's most glamorous programs, will leave the Big 12 conference they have called home since 1996, and move to the sport's most powerful and influential conference, the Southeastern Conference (SEC) for membership.  This is less about competitiveness and more about securing themselves a more financially secure future.  Both schools are two successful programs in football and have athletes in other sports (non-revenue such as soccer, track & field, baseball), but this move was purely about football alone.  The amount of annual revenue that both schools earn from their Big12 television contract is somewhere around $38 million. That is not a number to frown about but pales in comparison to what SEC-member schools get (roughly $45 million per year), and with the inclusion of Texas and Oklahoma, that number is going to increase.

With the two new additions, the projected SEC payouts could dramatically increase to over $60 million, give or take a few million.  The actual numbers will bear out in the coming years.  Some analysts of college football say a new television contract with the SEC and ESPN could bring close to $1 billion annually. It would rival the annual money that the NCAA earns with television networks for its administration of March Madness, the lucrative men's college basketball tournament that enraptures the country in March every year and makes it very hard for the other conferences to match them in money, and eventually, competitiveness.  Very likely, it would become a fool's errand to compete with schools in that conference, which in the long-term, may doom college football.  Why would the general public want to watch schools from the same conference every year compete for a "national championship" if most teams from the rest of the country are left out according to a format created and endorsed by a sports network (ESPN) that has the largest media rights for that conference (SEC)?

There are already rumblings of more schools wanting to join. The Florida State University Seminoles and the Clemson University Tigers, powers within the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), have made subtle and esoteric comments which imply that they don't want to be left without a chair with the conference alignment dance ends.  Endless rumors spread like wildfire, including claims that the SEC has made overtures to Michigan and Ohio State, mega brands in the BIG10. That conference, by the way, generates more revenue per school than the SEC.  Why would those schools want to leave a conference that makes money for its members, and has many schools that have academic prestige,  including membership in the Association of American Universities (AAU), something the SEC does not have in abundance?  The rumors get more insane with west coast power, and fellow blue blood, the University of Southern California (USC Trojans), a Pacific Conference (PAC-12) power joining the BIG10.  

Why would USC want to join a conference where they have no history?  I get money motivates these schools, but I don't think the Trojan fanbase would approve it.  The west coast is a great conference, one that produces individual and team champions that very few conferences can challenge.  The PAC-12 has the most individual Olympians and ranks 1st through 3rd in the number of most NCAA team champions.  The primary issue that USC and other PAC-12 powers complain about is that their football television contracts do not generate the same amount of money as the BIG10 and the SEC. Additionally, since they play on the "late coast," their games are shown at a time when many of the sports media have gone to bed, cannot or do not want to watch their games at a late hour.

Will these moves eventually force a break between these schools and the NCAA? Something similar was done to English soccer.  For many years, soccer in England resembled a pyramid, where the top clubs competed against one another in Division 1. If they had bad seasons, the teams at the bottom of the 1st division were "relegated," and teams from the second division below were "promoted" to the top division. This was the format for the lower professional leagues as well and was the way of doing things for decades.  In the early 1990s, some of the legendary clubs in English soccer (Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal) wanted to break away and earn their own money, while protecting parts of the functioning pyramid, to some extent.  This gave birth to the English Premier League, which has now become the richest soccer league in the world. The league can negotiate its media rights deals separately from the other divisions.  It creates a massive wealth disparity between wealthy clubs and those that have bare-bones team wages, but I assume it is tolerated because teams from lower divisions can qualify for the top flight of that country's soccer, and benefit from the aggregate revenue that teams in the top division receive once they get promoted.

I believe something similar will happen to college football.  The SEC has started what many believe will be a domino effect, and some blue blood programs will join that conference, mostly from the ACC (Florida State, Clemson, and perhaps the University of Miami).  However, I think the BIG10 and the Pac-12 will coordinate and work together to preserve what little competition remains in the top rung of college football.  Will that be a massive, joint league between those two conferences, or will it be an agreement to have a certain number of non-conference games against each other?  I think this is a good thing, rather than a bloated "super" conference.  If those conferences, along with the ACC and perhaps another conference, can create an "Intra-Conference Championship," which if marketed properly to generate fan interest and sponsorship, could realistically compete with the so-called SEC/National Championship.  It really comes down to how you create something out of this conference alignment chaos.  The key for school presidents, and conference commissioners is not to make rash decisions or partake in any decisions that are based on "fear of missing out" (FOMO) during this tumultuous time.  

Whatever decisions media companies, school officials, and trustees make, I think that sadly, college football will never be the same.  Greed, lack of loyalty to fellow conference members, and the selfishness of certain leaders in the sport will have long-lasting effects that won't bode well for its sustained popularity.  Many schools who are left out of musical chairs between the mega-conferences may end up getting rid of football, which is generally the largest expense for universities' athletic budgets.  Those players that are good enough will be absorbed by the larger schools, which should improve the talent on their rosters, but it will ruin the fabric of community between fans of the smaller schools that are left out of the money game in college sports.  

There will be contraction amongst those universities who determine that offering college sports to their student body will not be financially tenable.  The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) which for many years ruled college athletics outside of football, is in danger of becoming irrelevant.  The re-alignment and shifting of power to the SEC and forcing other conferences to make changes and leave old relationships will eventually make the organization a toothless behemoth.  College football powers will most likely create their own governing body, in relation to football, similarly to the Premier League, and have control over negotiating their revenue streams and determining a champion.  Whether that means all the power conferences are included in this governing body is yet to be determined.

I think the sudden departure of Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC has set in motion a chain reaction that will ultimately damage college football.  What made this sport have such passionate fanbases and increased its national popularity were the regional and historic rivalries (Nebraska v Oklahoma, USC v Notre Dame) and economic (Texas v Texas A&M, Washington v Washington State), with possibilities of upsets and dream seasons, and that most likely will be lost over time. Power and money are what is motivating these schools, more than loyalty and protecting long-standing relationships.  Once you destroy what made college football great, you will eventually ruin the sport itself.  That is the lasting legacy of what Texas and Oklahoma are doing by leaving their old conference and moving to the current flavor of the moment, the SEC.

  


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