The Democratic Party Debates...Who Runs the Asylum?

July 23, 2019

The two days of the Democratic Primary debates saw a lot of movement in the polls after the dust settled.  Kamala Harris was the biggest winner, and the primaries are shaping up to be an interesting fight between the various wings of the party and who will determine the party's destiny for the foreseeable future.

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The first two Democratic debates were the first chance for the country to take a look at the 20 (at the time) candidates who had declared for the White House in 2020.  The first night featured Julian Castro, Elizabeth Warren, Tulsi Gabbard, Cory Booker, Bill DeBlasio, John Delaney, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O'Rourke, John Inslee and Tim Ryan.  Of those mentioned, Elizabeth Warren, Julian Castro, and Tulsi Gabbard stood out, at least according to Google searches.  Personally speaking, while Julian Castro won viral moments, I believe Tulsi Gabbard was the best candidate on the stage. She was calm, deliberate and made sound points on the best foreign policy for the United States.  I think Ms. Gabbard came across as the most impressive candidate, but watching on television, I could not wonder if MSNBC was covertly trying to prop up its preferred candidates, Senators Warren and Julian Castro, who got most of the speaking time, while Tulsi was left to speak in short bursts, and was drowned out by audience reactions to obviously rehearsed lines from Mr. Castro and Beto O'Rourke. Additionally, her mike during the debates mysteriously cut off and she was not able to enter into discussions on various topics.  For those scarred by how the DNC handled Bernie Sanders in 2016, it appears nothing has changed.

The second debate featured Marianne Williamson, Oprah's former guru, John Hickenlooper (former Governor of Colorado, Andrew Yang, Pete Buttigieg, former Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, California Senator Kamala Harris, New York Senator Kristin Gillibrand, Colorado Senator Michael Bennet, and Congressman Eric Swalwell.  The frontrunners for this debate were obviously Mr. Biden, Senators Harris, and Sanders. At a distance, Senator Gillibrand was in the picture, but her support is inconsequential at this moment.  Most did not stand out by providing any substantive policy proposals.  Instead, it was risk-averse, bland talking points for the majority in the group on stage. Pete Buttigieg tried to speak about race, but Kamala Harris provided the best moment when she criticized Joe Biden's working relationship in the Senate with two former segregationists.  Senator Biden did his best to work with those he disapproved of and realized during his early years in the Senate that in order to pass legislation that would benefit the American people, he needed to work with members whose beliefs he disagreed with.  This is what most people in the country have to do in their professional lives on a weekly basis.  Senator Harris chastised Mr. Biden for his desire to have a working relationship with those senators who opposed federal busing programs. Ms. Harris said that she benefited from busing, and was one of the first students who was bussed to her school. She even created a hashtag (#thatlittlegirlwasme) that she miraculously made into a t-shirt immediately after the debates.  Total coincidence, right?

I would venture to guess that this exchange was premeditated by Senator Harris since Biden was the front-runner, and she needed a viral moment to gain supporters and move up in the polls. It worked.  Mr. Biden for his part did not react quickly and counter her accusations with a forceful defense of his record on behalf of his constituents, and what he thought he needed to do to benefit the American people.  His clumsiness did not win him any new supporters and seriously challenged his standing atop voter preference.  Some of his major donors have abandoned him.  Democratic party insiders want someone who can be as effective a flamethrower as President Trump, and Mr. Biden did not give primary voters that impression during the night.

The other candidates did not stand out.  There were empty platitudes about embracing immigrants, being closer to American ideals, providing Medicare for All, and other Democratic policies sound nice but require immense taxpayer funding.  We live in an age where extensive follow-up or in-depth analysis about what funding policy requires, or for how long, nor for the term of the funding is never asked.  America is so divided that neither party needs to provide a sound solution for what they oppose.  Republicans want to overturn the Affordable Care Act or "Obamacare," but do not give any concrete options that are a better alternative.  Democrats think President Trump colluded with the Russians and overturned vote totals in the last presidential election, but do not provide proof that a crime was committed.  Liberals had pinned their hopes on Special Counsel Robert Mueller's report, but nothing in the report gave any credence to accusations.  I am not arguing that President Trump is absolved of anything, but is there any evidence that can turn the public mood against the president, which can be used to impeach and convict him?

If the Democrats do not get their act together and nominate someone (Tulsi Gabbard in my opinion)  who can wither President Trump's barbs and nicknames and effectively counter his bluster with popular and pragmatic solutions to the nation's ills, Donald Trump will get re-elected easily. Ms. Gabbard has "the right stuff," and has a good sense of America's military role in the world is (nation-building should not be its central purpose).  Additionally, I think she can handle his zingers and affinity for nicknames for his opponents.  I am confident she will give it back to President Trump and will not cower under the pressure in the presidential debates.  Unfortunately, the Democratic party's key donors have not given her fundraising dollars, part of that I believe is to wait and see which White House aspirant shows some serious mettle. The other idea is that most of the money people within the Democratic party want an insider who can effectively win back the White House.  For many of them, Mr. Biden is the preferred choice. Senator Harris has potential, however, but she has a lot of baggage that no one has brought forth into the discussion, nor has she made proposals that the country can get behind. How she handles this pressure will determine if her recent surge will morph into a tidal wave towards the nomination.

As of now, the Democratic party does not have a message that will rally their base but also win new fans from Republicans and independents. Will the inmates still run the Democratic asylum or will the party head to the wilderness for the foreseeable future?

Women's World Cup 2019

July 2, 2019

The world converges once again to celebrate the sport of soccer, this time for the 2019 FIFA Women's World Cup. After three weeks, the tournament has concluded the Group Stage, Round of 16 and Quarterfinal matches and this week determines which teams will play for the Final on July 7th.

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Quarterfinals

England v Norway (3-0)

Even though England had won all of their group games, I thought this round was going to be a tougher challenge than their Round of 16 game against Cameroon (3-0).  However, England came out on firing on all cylinders and the Norwegians did not really answer the initial goal and were decisively beaten by England, 3-0. I expected the Norwegians to win, primarily because they looked good in their three group games (including a 2-1 loss to France), and felt they had the players to advance to the Final.  They are a young team and have the right pieces to mount serious challenges to future World Cups. What is impressive with the English team is that it has conceded just one goal this tournament by Scotland in the group stage. I was impressed with their grit, and now feel they might be able to put up a better challenge to the United States than France.

United States v France (2-1)

This was billed as the de facto World Cup final, in which the tournament's two highest-profile and heavy favorites played each other.  This was expected to be a close and hard fought game, and it lived up to its billing.  The US took a 2-0 lead, and during the 2nd half, France started to tire and the United States was in command, both in terms of possession and controlling the pace of the game.  It was not until the 80th minute that French defender Wendy Renard scored a header on a set piece, and cut the US lead to just one goal (2-1).  Unfortunately, the host country could not mount any serious challenges save for a few close calls on the US goal, but none went in.  Megan Rapinoe, who I believe is the best player of this tournament, scored two goals, which matched her two goals (both penalties) in the Round of 16 game against Spain.  She is the most important player if the United States hopes to repeat as World Cup champions.  Alex Morgan, the talented and popular striker on the team, has been absent for most of the games after the 13-0 Thailand massacre.  I  assume she is hurt and is not playing well due to an undisclosed injury.  Hopefully, she will bounce back in the next two games.

Germany v Sweden (1-2)

I was absolutely shocked that Germany lost this game. Sweden looked very unimpressive in their only difficult game, against the United States in the group stage, where they lost 2-0.  Germany was one of the teams I felt could hold their own with the powerful US squad, and it was reinforced with the Germans not conceding a goal in this World Cup.  I expected Sweden to put up a fight, but eventually lost to the Germans.  The game was pretty even throughout, and the Swedes did not falter under pressure after the Germans opened the scoring and held a 1-0 lead. It was short-lived, and the Swedish women answered with their own scoring to tie the game just before halftime.  In the second half, the Germans missed several opportunities to take the lead. The Swedes were patient and waited for the right chance to score another goal, after which they never relinquished their lead.  The Swedes did not play all their starters in their loss to the United States, which I read on media websites was on purpose.  The coach felt that the US was going to win their group, and as a result, would be in the tougher half of the tournament bracket.  I guess his strategy paid off, since the Swedish team is now in the Semi-Final, against a tough Dutch team.  If the Swedish women can get by the high-scoring Oranje, it will set up a mouth-watering final against their new rivals in international soccer, the United States, the reigning world champions.

Italy v Netherlands (0-2)

The Italians were one of the feel-good stories of this World Cup. It was 20 years since the Italian women last made a World Cup, and they certainly made an impression.   They shocked Australia in their first group game.  The Matildas were one of the pre-tournament favorites, with striker Sam Kerr leading their attack.  She scored 5 goals in the tournament, but she did not play well in their loss to the Italians.  Group C turned out to be the best group, with Italy, Brazil, and Australia each earning 6 points.  Since the Italians owned the tiebreaker due to their win over Australia, they won the group and defeated China in the Round of 16.  I felt they were the better team going into their match against the Netherlands, despite the Dutch being in command of each of their games during the group stage.  I was pulling for the Italians, however, because they were an entertaining group of players.  However, in the Quarterfinal, the Netherlands played extremely well.  The Italians had a few chances to score, but could not put it past the Dutch keeper.  The Netherlands were in control for most of the game and scored both of their goals off headers from set pieces.  This is the Netherlands' first time making the World Cup Semifinals, and their large number of fans who travel will be a huge system of support for their next game.


Semifinal Match-Ups

United States v England

This game will be fun. Both countries have long and historical ties with each other, and the English recently beat the United States in a friendly tournament that is held annually in the US, the SheBelieves Cup, which England won as well.  The Lionesses were a disastrous own goal from making the final of the 2015 World Cup in Canada, and they are playing to prove they belong amongst the world's elite national teams.  Although I had initially felt the Norwegians would prove to be the better team in their Quarterfinal matchup, England never let Norway back into the game after scoring their first goal.  The final goal (3-0), a screamer from Lucy Bronze, was an exclamation point to English aspirations to bring a World Cup back to the country that invented the sport. The United States has made their 8th straight Semifinal appearance, which is a record for any team, men's or women's.  Outside of the decisive victories in their group games, the US women have not been impressive in their advancement through the knock-out rounds.  They barely escaped Spain, courtesy of two penalties, one of which was dubious, but nonetheless, they made it past the up-and-coming Spanish women.  Their victory against the French was decisive, but I think it was more due to the French wilting under the enormous pressure (which for them is par for the course) playing in front of their home fans and for the massive implications for French women's football to win the World Cup on home soil.

The English will prove to be a better test since they are hungry to prove they are an elite squad.  Their backline will give the American women a stiffer test, and the front six of England will be eager to attack a weak defense of the United States.  Not to mention the Ameican keeper, Alssya Naeher, who has not been tested too much, and her play does not give anyone confidence she can handle the kind of pressure that is required for the final four of the tournament.  If the English can put shots on target, I think they can score and give the US women a serious challenge to repeat.  Victory is possible, but the Lionesses will have to play the game of their lives.  Are they up to the massive implications of this game?

* Prediction: USA 2, England 1

* This post was uploaded after the game (even though I predicted the correct score!), and Alyssa Naeher did block a PK, so she proved her worth in the game after all.  


Netherlands v Sweden

This game was a match-up that I did not foresee happening at this stage of the World Cup.  I felt the Netherlands would get out of their group, but would eventually lose to Italy in their Quarterfinal match.  However, after Sweden's surprise triumph over the Germans, I have a newfound respect for the Swedish ladies. The game was very much controlled by the Swedes and the Germans could not mount any serious scoring opportunities, save for a few close calls at the end of the match.  There were some good passing exchanges between the Germans, but the Swedish ladies controlled the pace and rhythm of the action. I thought the Italians would come out exerting pressure, but most of the top scorers could not make a dent in the backline of the Netherlands team.  Perhaps the gravity of the world stage got to the Italian team, and they could not overcome nerves.  One will never know.  On the positive side, if the Italians can build on their World Cup run, it could bode well for future generations of Italian women's football.  I for one am rooting for them and expect great things from this team in the future.

This Semi-final appears to be the game that could go either way.  The Swedes are good team, but they do not have anyone that I can recall who puts a scare in a defense.  They might have to score on set pieces close to the goalie box or wait patiently for a counterattack that will catch the Dutch off guard.  The Swedish ladies cannot afford to be listless like they were against the United States especially against a team with a bevy of goal scorers who are capable of putting balls in the back of the net.  They have to be aggressive, confident and must make use of any scoring opportunities. Based on what I have seen, I think this game will come down to Extra Time, where the Netherlands will get the lone goal that will see them advance to the Final, against the United States.

Prediction: Netherlands 2, Sweden 0