April 12, 2018
If war breaks out in Syria, another type of war, a financial one, will open in the Pacific and Asia.
What is Trump doing?
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With the temperamental and at times juvenile behavior in his first term as president, Americans are bracing for the worst with President Trump's decision as to what should be done for Syria. As is American custom, military options are always the first choice, and cheerleading from corporate-owned media is part of the main course of the televised bombing. Americans seem to be ok with this practice, but at some point, the citizens of the United States should ask serious questions about whether this policy will yield the type of results that will benefit the country in the long-term. The fact that a volatile President Trump has access to sensitive information, and tends to show-off that information (for instance, when Israeli intelligence gave vital data regarding Syrian defenses before a prior bombing, and Trump bragged to a Russian delegation in the Oval Office, including Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov about it) is not a good sign for other countries' intelligence services, who are rightfully doubtful about sharing future information with President Trump. He lacks the respect and deep understanding that is required when American intelligence assets provide important information, and the dangerous conditions from which the information was gathered for decisions that affect the world. If Trump is to coordinate an allied response to Russian aggression in the region, he needs to have NATO and other allies on the same page to work out what actions are prudent to support American foreign policy. To his critics, Donald Trump possesses the behavior of a teenager, and they rightfully question whether he truly understands the immense consideration these foreign policy decisions have on the United States and the men and women who serve our great country.
It begs the question of whether this president can handle another more serious issue that is developing in the Pacific region around China, Japan, and other prominent economies. With his recent boast of enacting trade tariffs, I doubt the president understands that many countries possess American debt, and President Trump pursues reactionary policies that are intended to please his base will cause those countries who own our debt to make their own retaliatory actions that will seriously affect the American economy.
In an article in Politico, author William Pesek wrote at length that President Trump may not understand the effects of what he says regarding trade with our Asian friends, and China especially. Those leaders have political considerations of their own. Perhaps he does not fully comprehend what can happen if he becomes too bellicose in trying to appease his reactionary base when those countries force counteractions to his own, and what it can lead to. If China, Japan, and other powerful economies decide to dump American debt into the market, those sell-offs can have catastrophic consequences for international markets and the American economy. Mr. Pesek states in the Politico article that if Trump follows through on his threats, China may decide to scale back their government purchases of US debt, and that will have massive spillover into the global economy. I doubt Trump himself understands how the markets are so intertwined. Not to mention his standing with his own party, wealthy donor base and how his re-election will be affected. Personally, I am in the camp that despite his wealth, he lacks a basic understanding of economics, and the precarious position foreign governments are contemplating in terms of what to do with the dangerous idea of adding more debt to our way of life here. President Trump seems to think his boasts will scare other countries into cowering in agreement with his ignorant stances on American government spending. It is not 1945 (when the United States had the most influence by producing 50% of the world's GDP), which is the beginning position of so many American conservatives use when negotiating with foreign governments.
Mr. Pesek explains that China's leader, Xi Jinping, thinks in decades, and now that he has total control of the Chinese Premiership, can outlast any measures Trump uses to please his equally ignorant base of what could happen to the American economy. The Chinese leader needs to have increased growth of approximately 6% and plans to have China be a worldwide leader in Aerospace technology, electric vehicles, biotechnology and high-speed rail. If that aspiration comes to fruition, America could be in a position where its global perch would be challenged and eventually surpassed by China's wealthy economy. The Politico piece provides a discussion that with a trade war, China would possess less American debt, and that will have scary consequences for American jobs and future rosy economic prospects, of which export-heavy China is dependent on. Xi may react accordingly to protect his own position with his own base. There is a no win-win situation for this economic conflict, and President Trump would be wise to think twice about what he is doing.
President Trump may think military operations may be cut and dry, and to some extent (in terms of mission goals, successes and after effects) they are. A conflict between countries, which focus on economic impacts, and be equally devastating and have negative outcomes for all countries in the Pacific. The US removal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which pleased Democratic grassroots and America labor unions, was not received well by those countries that worked hard to sign on for the trade policy. China will take advantage of that, since Trump's base may not understand how this plays into China's plan to win friends in the Pacific region, especially close to its borders and strengthen its position in conflict zones, such as the South China Sea. Those nations (Vietnam, the Philippines, and Japan) will have to make important decisions (economic and military) and vigorously contest Beijing's claims to that mineral-rich area.
I hope the way President Trump handles the Middle East is not damaging to American goals in the Pacific. The economic dangers can be far worse (outside of nuclear confrontation with Russia notwithstanding) and will put into question whether his administration, and the military and economic hawks who advise him, are capable of steering the next generation of American influence in a region of the world that China wants to own for its own future.
