December 24, 2022
The recent runoff decision for the United States Senate seat in Georgia, between incumbent Rafael Warnock and former NFL player Herschel Walker, completed the last of the elections for the 2022 Midterms. Senator Warnock was re-elected by a razor-thin margin. It put a definitive exclamation point on results that upended conventional wisdom. Usually, the incumbent President's party loses seats during their first election cycle. This has been the norm for decades. How did Democrats prevail despite the political winds heavily favoring the Republican party?
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The 2022 Midterm elections were shaping up to be a celebratory year for the GOP in Congress, with an uninspiring Democratic President, inflation, fluctuating oil prices on the open market, an embarrassing withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan, and Americans unhappy with the direction of the country overall. Things were looking up for the Republicans. How did the Democrats lose only the House (barely) and hold onto their Senate majority with an equally slight advantage despite most people believing it was going to be a good night for their opposition?
I think the recent Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade played a very large part in public sentiment, despite conservatives believing that a large percentage of Americans agreed with that ruling. I am of the belief that while some women would never terminate their own pregnancy under any circumstances, a good number of others would prefer it was an option available to them if the need arose. A large reason for success during non-presidential year elections is voter turnout, and voters turn out if they are motivated to do so. While overturning abortion may have been on the wish list for Republican voters for decades, it possibly proved pivotal in turning out Democratic voters.
Another factor in the Democrats' favor was poor candidate selection by the Republican National Committee (RNC) in the Georgia senate race between Herschel Walker and incumbent Rafael Warnock. Mr. Walker had a myriad of personal issues (abortions for his past girlfriends, his openness about his multiple personalities, not believing in evolution, and poor debate performance) and it did not instill confidence in Republicans in that state that he could win. Doctor Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania was another problem candidate. Despite his high-profile name recognition, his personal wealth, his relationship with Oprah (who endorsed his opponent), and fundraising prowess, he failed to beat his Democratic opponent, John Fetterman, who suffered a stroke before the election and embarrassed himself during their one and only debate. The Fetterman campaign was smart in scheduling the debate a month after early voting began, thereby reducing the chances for Dr. Oz to change the minds of undecided voters.
The Republicans did see the presumptive frontrunner for the Republican nomination for President in 2024, Ron DeSantis get re-elected easily in Florida. Additionally, the Democrats saw some of their candidates win high-profile statewide executive positions (Gavin Newsom in California, Gretchen Witmer in Michigan, Katie Hobbs in Arizona), and the party was able to prevent Republicans win a large number of governorships. In some of those races (Witmer and Hobbs), the Republican candidates were closing the polling and enthusiasm gaps, and it appeared that the GOP would gain those seats, but in the end, the Democrats eked out those wins on election night.
While the 2022 Midterms were not a total disaster for the Republicans, the party's leadership was clearly not happy with the final results. The Democrats, however, didn't exhibit any tactical mastery in strategy nor did the outcome reinforce President Biden's popularity. A lot of it came down to Republican mistakes and poor candidate choices as previously stated. Additionally, the public embrace of former President Donald Trump (Kari Lake in Arizona), and other candidates did not have the draw or appeal that many Trump supporters thought it would. I think the American people are tired of constant claims of "election fraud," or "re-instating" candidates who lost. I believe that Trump's time as the power broker in the Republican party is coming to an end, and the sooner the GOP realizes this, the party can move on and find new candidates to carry the torch for their political platform.
The 2022 Midterms were really a message to the Republican party, in that voters were tired of the antics of Donald Trump, and the drama he brings with the national media, including those who wish to monetize their animosity towards him. The American people want their government to be competent and improve and protect the quality of life for their families.
Conservative candidates and incumbents didn't provide any solutions for current issues either, such as illegal border crossings, and how to stem that flow of illegal migrants crossing into the United States in large numbers. Nor was any serious thought given, with policy initiatives, to improving the economy or giving Americans hope for the future. It's no wonder the party was not able to make any inroads with disaffected voters or gain new voters for the party. In order to win, you have to give people something to vote for, rather than vote against a President that half the country doesn't dislike (even though his policies do not seem to win over too many people). Candidate selection is part of it, and the other key element is proving solutions that Americans can get behind. I believe the GOP "phoned in" their strategy for victory, which simply means they thought supportive polling and a political environment for the taking would take care of itself. Hollow slogans do not push political parties over the finish line. Rather, it is fulfilling promises with hard choices that warrant victory.
Will the Republican party learn from the lessons of the 2022 Midterms? Will they move on from the Donald Trump era and coalesce behind a new face of the party? Will they be better at choosing good candidates and providing them with the tools to be successful? Time will tell what the party does to prepare for the pivotal races in two years. The 2024 election will be a monumental election, and one whose results with have consequences for many, many years. If the GOP is smart they will take stock of where they went wrong, admit their costly errors and come back a better party. For if they do not, the shock of losing winnable races will culminate in losing the party's most coveted race in 2024, the White House.
