April 18, 2023
Based on a campaign promise, New York County District Attorney Alvin Bragg filed documents to indict Donald Trump, the 45th President of the United States. This was a historic decision, in that it became the first time a former president was charged with an alleged crime after leaving office. Until this decision, former presidents were allowed to do their jobs, regardless of what people felt about them, and then move on from their tenure. However, the vitriol from Democrats and those in the GOP that opposed President Trump during his time as President gives D.A. Alvin Bragg wind for his sails of prosecutorial zest. Has a divided America finally crossed the proverbial Rubicon?
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No matter how you felt about President Trump, his four years in office resulted in accusations, impeachments, intense drama, and constant bickering with national media, Democrats, some Republicans, and influential donors around the country. There was never a lull during President Trump's years in the White House. It went from one issue to the next. I can understand why most Americans, especially independents, wanted calm, and a return to "normalcy," and voted Mr. Trump out of office. Despite this, the anger and hatred for Mr. Trump never subsided, and elected law enforcement officials (D.A. Alvin Bragg, NY State Attorney General Leticia James) ran on promises to go after the Trump Empire by any means necessary.
This current indictment of President Trump is part of that effort. Mr. Bragg has charged the former president with 34 counts relating to payments relating to his extra-marital affair with adult video performer Stephanie Clifford (aka "Stormy Daniels"), under the guise of falsifying business transactions to protect Mr. Trump's alleged guilt in betraying his marriage.
What is the end game here? Among the many issues that the former President is dealing with, these charges and accusations are not the most egregious. He is indirectly related to the litigation between Dominion Voting Systems (the company that creates electronic voting hardware and software) and Fox News and may have been called to testify, had the trial actually gone forward. Instead, both parties settled today (April 18th) for much lower than Dominion had asked for ($787 million, as opposed to their initial damages of $1.6 billion, respectively). Additionally, a former acquaintance, E. Jeane Carrol has accused President Trump of sexual assault, and the status of that serious charge is currently being deliberated by a federal appeals court. The most damaging political issue Mr. Trump has to deal with relates to voting rights in the state of Georgia, especially the counting of votes during the 2020 election. The former chief executive did himself no favors when a recording of a phone call with the Georgia Secretary of State, Brad Raffensperger, asking him to "find" little over 11,000 votes to swing the election outcome in his favor. Regardless of how Mr. Trump intended the conversation to go, the outward appearance (with audio proof) of a sitting President asking his own party's election official to "discover" votes to help him win the state is pretty damning.
If the Democrats are laser-focused on seeking any sort of justice against President Trump, there are far more serious problems he faces than dubious claims (with no prior precedent of conviction in New York to my knowledge) of trying to hide payments to a mistress using alleged campaign funds. Why not let those issues play out first? I feel that their spite and intense hatred of the former president clouds their thinking, and 'by any means necessary' is the mood with Donald Trump's detractors.
I suspect though that there are other ideas at play here, some of which are discussed by the media including online publications. One person, former Assistant U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, Andrew McCarthy, theorizes in National Review that political calculations play into this legal matter. He asserts that the Democrats believe President Joe Biden is unpopular, and a vote for him in 2020 was really an anti-Trump vote, rather than an affirmation of him or his campaign promises. Additionally, the senior leaders of the party know that Vice President Kamala Harris, though historic on many levels, does not endear party loyalists to her and that many independent voters and Republicans do not view her favorably.
Mr. McCarthy believes that Mr. Bragg's legal charges against Mr. Trump will elevate Donald Trump in the eyes of the party's vocal and energetic base, thereby helping him win the GOP nomination in 2024, and allowing Mr. Biden an easy re-election. His premise includes Democrats winning with many down-ballot races that will give them control of the House again and a bigger majority in the Senate. Additionally, Mr. McCarthy believes the Democrats want multiple legal battles to enter the courtroom around the time the GOP begins primaries to nominate their representative against President Biden, which is hoped will damage Donald Trump even more in the eyes of American voters.
Mr. McCarthy could be right. After charges were filed following grand jury deliberations, President Trump's fundraising drastically increased, and polling showed that he has increased the gap between him and his most serious challenger, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. If Andrew McCarthy is prescient about the Democrats' plan, it just might be very effective. Having President Biden run against a polarizing former president, one who is dealing with multiple lawsuits, and investigations by politically calculating elected law enforcement officials, his bombastic and counter-punching philosophy, will surely turn away many voters who are not Biden fans. As the last two elections have shown, Donald Trump's coattails are not that beneficial. Many far-right Republicans who courted the MAGA ("Make America Great Again") base of GOP support went down to defeat in 2020, special elections in 2021, and may as well in the next general election cycle. If the Republicans hope to win back the White House in 2024, the party must move forward with ABT ("Anybody But Trump").
The lasting effect of "Crossing the Rubicon" is that former Presidents are no longer untouchable, regardless of public opinion about them. Richard Nixon, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush were polarizing to some extent, but they were never sued, or prosecuted by U.S. Attorneys or attorneys general once they left the Oval Office. Politically calculating law enforcement officials, who stand to win support from within their party to match their larger political ambitions, will forever erode trust in our political system, cause more fighting, and will lead to more "peaceful" protests and storming the U.S. Capitol by supporters of both parties. That is why this move by Alvin Bragg is so dangerous to the country.
When Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon River separating modern-day southern France (Roman province of Gaul) from the Italian Peninsula, it changed Rome's politics drastically. This move was deemed illegal by Roman law (governors of their provinces could not lead its military forces into Rome itself) against Caesar's actions and led to a civil war within the Roman Republic and ended with him becoming "dictator for life" as Emperor (Wikipedia).
These lawsuits against Donald Trump may in fact prove his guilt, but the process has not won popular support or affirmed respect based on accusations from the broader general public, or some Republicans. As former Congressman Charlie Wilson (R-Texas) once said tongue-in-cheek, members of Congress are elected by donors, not voters. I believe these legal investigations into President Trump were encouraged by influential donors from both political parties who have an aversion to him personally. While that may be true, the lasting damage these investigations, charges, and court proceedings will do will push many Americans into believing our run as a country might end soon. If both political parties and their donors and supporters do not acknowledge political defeat and victory by their opponents, and leave former presidents alone, then this endless cycle will lead to more former presidents being investigated and charged. I predict it will lead to civil unrest and violence and serious damage to our country. We as a nation have crossed the Rubicon. Can we prove history wrong, and cross back?
