Search This Blog

Tuesday, March 17, 2020

The 2020 Democratic Primaries: Finally, There was One.



March 11, 2020

Silly season has started in the early months of 2020, lurching the Democratic party through the Iowa Caucus, the primaries in New Hampshire,  Super Tuesday and on March 10th.  Now the political world is paying attention to the serious battles that are emerging between the activists, political class and members of Congress.
__________________________

As the media focused on the massive voter turnout on March 3rd, known as "Super Tuesday," the Democratic party's internecine struggles are being offered to the party's ardent supporters to make the decision of who to challenge President Donald Trump.  For the past year, the nation got to know many aspirants to the White House, among them Senators Kamala Harris,  Kristin Gillibrand, Corey Booker, Amy Klobuchar, billionaire Tom Steyer, former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg, Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, and Montana Governor Steve Bullock who comprised the large field that campaigned for most of 2019. Most of the lesser-known candidates had their moment in the sun, and many have in fact dropped out on the eve of Super Tuesday.  The remaining primary process is largely a battle between two combustible wings of the Democratic party:  the Bernie Sanders socialism wing, and Vice President Joe Biden's Establishment wing.  This is not so much a nomination process as the culmination of a decades-long fight for the soul of the party.  Super Tuesday was the first major battle to determine which direction the party moves heading into a new decade.

The "first in the nation" Iowa Caucus was highly anticipated, and while Bernie Sanders won the popular vote and received a large share of the apportioned delegates, fresh-faced Peter Buttigieg seemed to steal the spotlight from the popular senator from Vermont by coming in a close second place, by 2 percent. What added to the chaos of the voting was the poor attempt by the Iowa Democratic Party to use an untested new app to help tabulate the votes during the caucus meeting locations.  It didn't help that media reported that the app designer included some former Obama administration staffers and the company also received payment from candidate Buttigieg's campaign for prior work.  This enraged the Bernie Sanders supporters, including the aggressive and infamous "Bernie Bros," who wanted a recount to ensure fairness was in order.  The images on TV of caucus members flipping coins (including one horrible attempt caught on camera) made the entire spectacle into a sad joke. Online commentary decried that if the Democrats could not properly run their vote counting, why would the country trust them to run the United States?  It was not a good visage for the party that it hoped for.

After the country had watched many televised debates, New Hampshire turned into a predictable win for Senator Sanders.  Another caucus state, Nevada went to Senator Sanders as well.  History had shown that whichever person had won both Iowa and New Hampshire primaries went on to win the nomination.  It appeared that Senator Sanders was cruising, and all that remained before Super Tuesday was the South Carolina primary.  This was a firewall of sorts for the Vice President, who won that state handily. This was attributed to a large number of older, registered African-American primary voters, who were in his corner because he was the part of the first black president's administration in American history.  Despite being in politics for over 40 years, it was the first time Mr. Biden had won a presidential primary.  He did so decisively which gave him some much-needed momentum going into the first major battle of apportioned delegates needed to secure the majority to win the party's nomination.

California was the state on Super Tuesday (March 3rd) that has the largest delegate haul, almost 400, which is the most coveted state in a Democratic primary and also the general election for 55 Electoral College votes.  Bernie Sanders was favored to win that state in a big way, and he did comfortably. However, the Democratic party does not award all its delegates in states to whichever candidate wins the primary, unlike the Republican party.  So even though Senator Sanders will get the largest share of delegates, since Vice President Biden made a strong showing, he will bring into his campaign a significant share of delegates from that state too. 

The result of Super Tuesday proved Mr. Biden has staying power (at least in terms of winning the nomination) due to his impressive haul of winning 10 states, including a shock win of progressive Minnesota.  That must have hurt Senator Sanders, and what it foretold, which was a night in which he only collected wins in 4 states, one of which was aforementioned California.  Mr. Bloomberg, for all of his massive spending to date ($500 million) won only one the territory, American Samoa.  Tulsi Gabbard also won a single delegate, but her chances of being included in any future debates appear dim since the DNC wants to lock up the nomination process soon and avoid Vice President Biden being exposed to the national media. This is shameful treatment of the only remaining woman candidate for the presidency and that adds to the negative public perception of the Democratic party.

Senator Sander's insurgency looks to be dying out, after the results on the second round of state primaries that took place on March 10th.   The pulse of his campaign is on life support because the former Vice President Biden won the state of Michigan, a state Senator Sanders beat Hillary Clinton for in 2016.  His loss in that state means most likely the progressive champion has fought his last major battle in his political career.  A new leader must emerge from that wing of the party. Perhaps Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, who may be more successful in her attempt to win not only new hearts and minds for the cause, can achieve the eventual goal of winning the White House in the future for progressives.

What does this mean for the remaining debates, which are supposed to feature Mr. Biden and Senator Sanders on Sunday?  What does it mean for the Democratic party's nomination process from here on out?  If Senator Sanders tries to vainly push on, and he does not make any serious dent in Mr. Biden's candidacy after the next debate, he will probably bow out.  It will be a finale to his attempt to change the political narrative in the party to a new progressive way.  His supporters will be angry. Some might not even vote in the general election, something Vice President Biden must attempt to change during his fight against President Trump.

What is the Democratic path now?  Mr. Biden is an "Establishment" Democrat, one who is very comfortable with the corporate wing of their own party who may not make too many concessions to the populist and Leftist wing of the fractured party.  His potential cabinet includes mega-donor and head of J.P. Morgan Chase Jamie Dimon (Treasury), and foreign policy hawk Susan Rice (Secretary of State).  Mr. Biden is keeping a small pool of candidates for the Vice Presidency, including former candidate Amy Klobuchar and defeated Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams for his potential administration.  These are just rumors, but if they have a bite to them, I think most of the progressive members of the party will stay home on Election Day in November especially if Senator Klobuchar is the nominee for VP.  This might be the official split between the factions of the party, and I could actually see a new "Progressive Party" rise to challenge the orthodoxy and power of the corporate left in politics. Additionally, the images of Mr. Biden slurring words, forgetting parts of historical Constitutional language, wanting to challenge voters to fights and tests of physical strength, scares some people about his mental acuity and ability to wage a tough and winnable campaign:



Can Mr. Biden go the distance? While many of the Democrats who voted for Hillary remain angry, the support for Mr. Biden is not genuine, other than seeing him as the best person who can defeat Donald Trump. Can he campaign hard, win convincingly in the Presidential debates and win over a significant part of the country's electorate? I am not sure he can do it. Those who have watched Mr. Biden's gaffes during the numerous party debates,  his interactions with voters on the campaign trail, and his inability to form coherent thoughts don't inspire confidence, at least to me.  He may end up being a sacrificial lamb, since the economy is doing well, and President Trump has fulfilled the campaign promise in 2016 to put two new judges on the Supreme Court, along with hundreds of judges on the lower courts as well. Conservatives are behind him. The public panic over the Coronavirus (Covid-19), its effect on the economy and how he handles it, along with the public's perception of his leadership, may ultimately determine how this intense 2020 campaign cycle ends.

The State of the GOP Primary So Far

  January 10, 2024 After four debates between the Grand Old Party (GOP) aspirants for the party's nomination, it is still former Preside...