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Friday, September 14, 2018

Will the Democratic Party fracture before the 2020 Election?



September 8, 2018


Even though most Democratic voters are uniform in their disgust with President Donald Trump, will that translate into a solid voice for the November Midterms and the 2020 Presidential Election?

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The year 2018 has been an interesting one for Democrats.  They saw a young, photogenic and passionate first-time candidate in Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and a few other similar candidates who won their primaries in Georgia (Stacey Abrams, Governor), Florida (Andrew Gillium, Governor), and Massachusetts (Ayana Pressley, Congress).  These wins were the first wave of more progressive and socialist-style candidates who are going to transform the Democratic party; perhaps into a more compassionate and effective party of legislators who would advocate for and win legislative victories for the country at large.  The grassroots of the Democratic party is certainly more passionate about issues that the Democratic Establishment give lip service to, such as affordable healthcare, power for organized labor, and restraint with foreign wars and nation-building.  

Although these ideas have a sound background and merit, the Democratic Establishment does not publicly put up a fight whenever one of these issues come up in Congress, such as for Appropriations bills. The party is not the party prior to Clinton who challenged Republican presidents for their foreign policy decisions.  For instance, the investigations into Iran-Contra was due to a Democrat-controlled Congress.  Currently, the Democratic grassroots wants the Democrats to fight President Trump on almost every issue, from investigating Russian collusion with the 2016 election to voting against every Supreme Court nominee.  However, with the current make-up of the Republican-controlled Senate, unless two GOP Senators join the Democrats, Robert Kavanaugh, President Trump's nominee to replace Anthony Kennedy on the United States Supreme Court, will get approved.  Where does that leave the Democrats and their major factions?

With the upcoming 2018 Midterms, Democrats are poised to win back the House of Representatives, according to several polls.  That being said, it could be an election where the lines of division are drawn within the Democratic Caucus.  Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the unofficial leader of the Democratic Socialists, and after November, their numbers could grow.  There is also talk that the influx of younger, more progressive Democrats could seek to find a new leader, since Pelosi has been around for quite some time, and she is a polarizing figure nationally. Additionally, new Democrats may push for someone younger and closer to the views of Millennial voters. 

Some of the values and policies that the progressive and socialist Democrats want to pass are Single Payer (Medicare for All), $15 minimum wage, equal pay and narrowing the wealth gap.  Some of these ideas have good intentions, like making health care affordable, and improving the pay for low-income jobs in the food service industry, and trying to find a more equitable pay structure for the workplace, but I don't see the Establishment Democrats forcing any votes for legislation to make any laws in benefit on these policy goals.  The Establishment Democrats cater to the same wealthy and corporate donors that give to the Republican party, and those donors do not want higher taxes or more regulations that police the workplace.  I see a sizable rift between the Democratic leadership and the new progressive and socialist Democrats who are going to push for more policies that the activists and grassroots of the party will want to see.

What will become of this fracture?  Well, I think the same problems are developing within the Republican party as well.  There are grassroots organizations who are even more right-leaning than the current leaders of the GOP (Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell), and some of them have decided to retire (Speaker Ryan), rather than deal with the thought of getting challenges in party primaries by this new wave of ultra-conservative Republicans.   I personally feel that this is a good thing for the country.  Right now, Congress is so polarized that very few items of bipartisanship get handled, outside of support for the military and its operations. 

What this means for both the Democratic and Republican parties is that these fissures will slowly grow, and the only logical solution is the advent and formation of new parties.  Grassroots activists in both parties will find the corporate donors and party establishments cater to a small select group of people and any benefits that result go to those very same people.  This is one of the reasons why Donald Trump won, in that many Americans did not share the spoils of success with those who exploited the government and its spending.  I don't foresee any future bank bailouts (TARP, 2008), especially in the current climate.

I feel it is in the best interests of the country if the two major parties forced the formation of multiple new parties.  This will help with alliances of convenience. Political factions will support other factions who share commonality with specific issues (health care, law enforcement, military spending) and oppose each other on issues they disagree. How does this help run the country?  Well, it will force the Democrats and Republicans to form temporary alliances with smaller parties in order to get laws and legislation passed.  For instance, if the Republicans want a law passed regarding lower taxes for small businesses, the new, more liberal political party (Democratic Socialists) will ask to increase the minimum wage to $15 in order to get support for the legislation to pass.  This type of compromise was done between Democrats and Republicans in the past, but it is not going to change back any time soon.  That is why the formation of new political parties, caused by rifts in ideology and policy goals, that will transform how our government functions for the better.  Wealthy donors and corporations who heavily lobby Congress will fight new movements because the new parties mean more money will need to be spent to protect their financial interests. 

The pushback will be fierce, but the political cracks in the Democratic party will be far-reaching, which will include similar breaks in the Republican party.  However, in the long run, the country will have a working government in which the legislative process fulfills the Founder's intentions:  separate branches of government, with different political parties and individuals, who come together, and pick alliances based on the issue (albeit temporarily) to pass effective legislation. Then the cycle will continue anew with new partnerships that will benefit the American people overall.



1 comment:

  1. I agree that the formation of parties that have different priorities competing for the most votes and also alliances, will enhance integrity and include meaningful platforms that will benefit all Americans and our society over the long term.

    ReplyDelete

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