2020 Election Recap: America is exhausted.

 

December 15, 2020

America voted on November 3rd, putting an end to a contentious and volatile four years of the Trump administration.  Although Mr. Trump is fighting legal challenges in court relating to vote counting and alleged voter fraud in states that have been called for the Democratic nominee, it appears Vice President Biden has been certified by the Electoral College to be the nation's 46th President.   After the smoke clears, the pundits, political class, donors, and citizens will have to analyze the past four years and see what has become of our democracy.

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I think I am part of a large segment of the American electorate that is simply exhausted from the constant aggression between President Trump and his supporters and everyone that was against him and wanted to see him fail or get removed from office: The Democrats, the legacy media, political pundits, titans of Silicon Valley, Wall Street and Hollywood, just to name a few.  The 2020 election saw the largest number of voters for both candidates in the history of our country, with Joe Biden receiving a little over 81 million votes, while outgoing President Trump received close to 74 million votes.  Those numbers are simply staggering and were the culmination of four years of trench warfare and "Get Out the Vote" drives between those for and against a divisive President and his agenda.

Most media outlets and many Americans conclude that Joseph Biden and Kamala Harris will be sworn in on January 20th, 2021 as the next President and Vice President of the United States.  President Trump and his supporters believe there was extensive voter fraud and irregularities with vote counting, and have mounted legal challenges to fight for the ability to have their votes counted, and illegal votes removed from the vote count. The President is allowed to do so, and within his rights, but I believe most Americans feel that this race has been settled.  While I personally think there is always some minor level of vote fraud and irregular ballots, I don't think the scope of what the Trump administration alleges to have been that large and extensive. If it was, it would be the biggest scandal in American history, but evidence needs to be shown for his campaign's claims to have merit. Additionally, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against Texas and the other 20 states that wanted the election overturned. 

Governor Brian Kemp of Georgia, an important state for both campaigns, concluded the audit of vote counting in his state and certified the winner.  This has not lowered tensions and divisiveness, but President Trump should focus his remaining time on helping his party in the two run-off Senate races so his party can keep control of the United States Senate, and promoting the achievements.  The incoming Biden administration should also be respectful of Trump voters too, and figure out a way to move the nation forward and try to implement his agenda.  I think for his lasting legacy, and what the country's final images of his time in the White House should is to graciously concede his loss, and work to begin a peaceful transition of power to the incoming Biden administration.  Pursuing legal fights is not convincing the American people of his case, and should stop.  Since the Electoral College on December 14th confirmed Joe Biden as the 46th President, Mr. Trump now needs to be magnanimous in defeat.

Therefore, it is appropriate to analyze both campaigns and see what they did right and what they did wrong.

President Trump's successes & failures

One of President Trump's strengths is that he has a keen awareness of the public mood and sentiment (at least towards his own supporters) and that was what led him to initially win the Republican nomination and the White House in 2016.  However, during the 2020 campaign, that skill eluded him, most notably when it came to Covid-19 and the psychological damage and economic toll it took on the country at large.  Americans were notably scared initially, then frustrated, then despondent, and now angry and divided into reliable viewpoints.  I think that is what ultimately cost President Trump re-election.  The country, including those who did not vote for him the first time, and still didn't like him, supported most of these policies and foreign policy initiatives (First Step Act, prison reform, peace deals in the Middle East).  Once the President lost support amongst those voters, with a close election expected, his margin for victory needed to be much larger, and the lack of it showed when he lost by nearly 7 million votes.

Another factor that cost him with voters was his open lack of empathy towards those who were scared and grieving for those who lost family and friends to the virus.  This played a larger role than many want to believe.  Had President Trump been more proactive towards assuaging the country's fears,  and taken steps to implement mandated mask-wearing at all federal buildings, and amongst members of Congress, and if he had worn a mask regularly, would have sent a strong message. He needed to lead by example. Conversely, it was not a good look when he was stricken with Covid.  His administration had many successes, but he had self-inflicted failures that were too much to overcome in the eye of independents and white, college-educated voters, not to mention white, blue-collar workers who abandoned his campaign when he needed them the most. It might have changed the narrative for his election, but those losses could not be stymied despite President Trump's gains with Latinos, African-American men, and a smaller percentage of Asian-Americans.  

President Trump stated he didn't want to "alarm" Americans when Covid cases proliferated. However, his policies and actions, along with those who opposed his administration at every turn, did not help him or make a case for him to get another four-year term.  The opposition against him was so powerful, well-funded, organized and cohesive, with active support from senior Democratic elected officials, on the federal and state levels, that he stood no chance being as clumsy as he was politically.  Mr. Trump did not have a large number of competent administration staff who shared his vision for the country, outside of a relative few and instead relied on a large army of sycophants, party loyalists, and close family and friends. By doing this, President Trump stood no chance against the entrenched administrative state of the government. He stacked his cabinet with political neophytes and wealthy individuals like Commerce Secretary and billionaire  Wilbur Ross.  President Trump needed more politically savvy people to tell him what he was doing wrong, and what he needed to do to show he was especially managing the fight against Covid better.  If people who dislike you imply that you do not know what you are doing, and you help them by fulfilling their impressions of you, it is difficult to change that negative narrative.  As a result, it cost Mr. Trump dearly in his quest for re-election.

Vice President Biden's successes & failures

If you ask most Americans, many would have said before Covid-19 became the terrifying virus in its current form, Donald Trump was going to coast to victory.  A campaign cycle is a long time, where even a few months can change the trajectory of an aspirant to the White House.  The late, former President Geoge H.W. Bush would have agreed. He was a decorated war hero from World Word II, who was leading the upstart Clinton campaign almost a year before election day but ended up losing due to the effective marketing by the Democratic nominee. The fact that the economy was becoming sluggish heading into the final weeks of that election year was the nail in the coffin President Bush's ultimate loss.  

Once countries around the world dealt with the debilitating effects of the virus, especially in the United States, Donald Trump's political fortunes started to take a turn for the worse.  The Democrats who supported Joe Biden did their part to engage in asymmetric warfare with the incumbent President, and they were aided by powerful allies in Silicon Valley, Wall Street, wealthy donors, and friends in the large media corporations who carried water for the Biden campaign.  It was smart by his staff to keep him inside his house, where he did the occasional scripted interview with the media, and none seemed to ask him difficult or pressing questions about his convictions and goals on foreign policy, domestic and economic policy, and how to bridge the massive divide between citizens of this country.  It was obvious to me that the national media had a preference to the Democratic nominee and protected Mr. Biden.

Mr. Biden was also helped by President Trump's poor first debate performance, where he was erratic, his counter punches did not seem to cause any damage, and he appeared flustered and undisciplined. Even though the President was interrupted repeatedly, by the moderators, and to some extent, by the former Vice President himself, he should have taken the high road and tried to be more presidential, calm, and to show the American people his presence on the national stage.  I don't think he was able to convey any of that that during the presidential debates against Hillary Clinton in 2016, due to her being intensively disliked.  Joe Biden, despite his many faults, is not a disliked politician.  He is gaffe-prone and doesn't convey strength, but what worked for Mr. Trump with Ms. Clinton did not have the same effect as with Mr. Biden.

The party's power brokers wanted to protect Joe Biden from making any lasting mistakes.   It was an effective game plan to win, but I feel it didn't provide the Biden campaign with a mandate to implement their agenda. What was surprising was that Senator Kamala Harris, who was a former prosecutor, and had a presence during senate confirmation hearings, was not made available to the media either.  No one challenged this overall strategy, and I am sure President Trump and his supporters were upset by this. The Democrats preferred to let the Covid virus, and Mr. Trump's handling of it, aided by infection and death rates shown on a daily basis, to be the straw that broke the camel's back for President Trump, and which it succeeded in doing.

Conclusion

While President-Elect Biden and Vice President-Elect Harris are starting their transition to the White House, the Democrats, on the whole, did not have a good campaign cycle.  Media polling provided countless opportunities to show President Trump trailing on a weekly and monthly basis. It perpetuated this impression of a "Blue Wave" that would give the Democrats a powerful majority, control of both houses of Congress, with the ability to change the Supreme Court to their liking.  It was supposed to be a transfer of power to the Democrats for at least a generation, but that did not come to pass.  The Republicans could hold onto the Senate majority (unless they lose both Georgia Senate run-off races), which regardless gives them a huge advantage heading into the 2022 election cycle.  In the House, the Republicans did not lose any incumbents, while the Democrats lost 7 seats as of this writing. Some races have yet to be called:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/election-results/house-2020/

If the GOP wins the outstanding races to be called, Nancy Pelosi would have the smallest majority in at least 60 years (222 Democrats, 213 Republicans). I doubt she holds onto power past 2022 (in fact, she stated that this Congress will be her last time as Speaker and party leader).  More importantly, the Republicans won control of 30 of 50 state legislatures, which gives the party enormous control when it comes time to drawing congressional districts to protect future incumbents.

In closing, while the Democrats won their grand prize, the White House, they actually had a terrible campaign in many down-ballot races.  The 2020 election was a referendum on President Trump himself, and his outlandish personality, and the country's desire to see someone who is a better fit for the office of the President.   Other than that, the Democrats did not have the mandate they were hoping for, and there will be no unity in the country for the time being.  Which is sad and unfortunate.  I think the country was hoping for calm waters in Washington, D.C. President Trump was what the country wanted in 2016, an actual 'bull in a China shop.'  Four years later, America was just tired and exhausted from all the bull.