The State of the GOP Primary So Far

 

January 10, 2024

After four debates between the Grand Old Party (GOP) aspirants for the party's nomination, it is still former President Trump's to lose, and barring any legal problems, or convictions for that matter, none of the candidates have proven their worth to be a better alternative for Republicans.

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For those who dislike former President Donald Trump, or had hoped to see a bloodbath in terms of the prospective alternatives to the "Orange One" fighting it out for the nomination, it has not turned out that way.  At various times, a new candidate would become the trendy "it" person.  First, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was favored to be the best person to wrestle the nomination away from Mr. Trump, but his campaign has faltered and has not recovered. Then, political momentum moved to Vivek Ramaswamy, who was intelligent and well-read, but his confident demeanor rubbed some the wrong way. After his stumbles, the media shifted toward former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley.  Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie was a known name, and I agree with some that he may have missed his best chance for the nomination in 2012 (he did not run, and supported Mitt Romney's failed campaign). No one had been good enough to break out and pull away from the candidates who weren't serious contenders.

According to FiveThirtyEight, in January 2024, Donald Trump polls at 61%, while Mr. DeSantis has 12% support, and the surging Nikki Haley is nipping at his heels (pun intended!), while Vivek Ramaswamy has not moved past 5% and Mr. Christie brings up the caboose at 3.8%.

Governor Ron DeSantis was pegged by many political pundits and media publications as the greatest threat to wresting the GOP nomination from Donald Trump and restoring centrism back into the Republican party.  Things have not gone as planned.  His campaign was greeted with optimism, but his rollout on Twitter, now "X," was marred by glitches and technical issues. It was the equivalent of a sprinter tripping and falling after the gun was fired. It was not a good look for his campaign.  During the first four debates, Mr. DeSantis did not distinguish himself and came across as stiff, clumsy, and had facial expressions that were awkward or ill-timed.  To me, he didn't appear at ease, or comfortable with his environment and didn't exude confidence during challenges from the debate moderators. His campaign has been an overwhelming disappointment to party observers, and he probably will end his campaign if he doesn't perform well in the early primary states.  It would be a surprising ending to what his campaign had going for it at the very beginning, inevitability to being the best challenger to Trump's reign, and becoming the new leader of the party once he won the nomination.

Nikki Haley was not someone the country thought would be a contender early on, but she has taken part of the Republican party's base by storm.  As the former governor of South Carolina, she, like Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Christie had successful terms as the chief executive of their respective states.  All have proven track records, but she was also former President Trump's United Nations (U.N.) Ambassador.  During debates, she extolls her experience dealing with enemies and antagonists for America at the Security Council.  What she doesn't want to admit, and no one has asked her, is that she must vote the way the State Department wants her to vote, and works at the pleasure of the President of the United States.  In other words, she doesn't make up her own positions and is unconstrained by the President's directives.  There is no room for independence, and she should be clear about her prior role, and the other primary candidates need to point that out during debates.  Additionally, during a campaign stop, she was asked about the Civil War but neglected to mention slavery as the primary cause of the conflict. It made her look foolish and dampened any momentum after a solid performance during the most recent debate. After leaving her ambassadorship, she sought the greener pastures of private enterprise and was given board seats for several defense contractors and other large corporations.  

I believe that a good number of those defense contractor employees have written maximum contributions for her campaign and several GOP mega-donors have thrown their support too. Ms. Haley is the preferred candidate for the military-industrial complex, and her positions concerning Ukraine, Israel, China, and Russia show who "butters her bread."  Those positions go against what many in the Republican Party want, which is "America First," which is to avoid costly wars or support for countries whose goals and agenda are different from what the United States should be. 

I feel Vivek Ramaswamy is an intelligent and assertive candidate, and is unabashed in providing his opinions and policy positions. He generally doesn't cower from any challenges from other candidates, or political journalists, but I think his momentum has probably peaked.  The mainstream media initially gave him a lot of air-time, which he took advantage of, and went on as many TV interviews as possible, but now have turned on him.  Several women on these networks promote the idea that he has a "women problem," in that he has criticized prominent women in the party (Ms. Haley, and Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel) for example.  I disagree with that assertion. Mr. Ramaswamy has fought onstage with Mr. Christie, Mr. DeSantis, and a few other men running for the nomination. He seems to direct his ire onto anyone he feels deserves it, but that has not allowed him to win over more skeptical voters in the primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire. The "Establishment" of Washington, D.C., which is all about the elites (including donors) of both parties who have the same foreign and monetary policy, Wall Street, and political agendas, have not increased their fundraising and public support.  If Vivek cannot win or place second in the first three primary contests, I think his candidacy is effectively done and he should bow out gracefully.

I had always felt that Governor Christie should do himself a favor and drop out of the race. Looks like he took my advice, and has officially dropped out as of today, January 10th.  His campaign didn't seem to gain any traction, nor did he seem to be able to encroach on other candidates' momentum.  It was an afterthought, and voters seemed to agree.

This is for all intents and purposes, former President Donald Trump's race to lose.  It always was. He has such overwhelming support from his party's base and specific members of Congress.  Along with independents, his campaign has seen that support grow after Mr. Trump's legal troubles and indictments.  I think the media wanted a genuine horse race and didn't want the Republican primary to be a pre-ordained coronation, so they played the candidates, and their supporters off each other, in hopes of drawing in viewers and potentially seeing their ratings rise. The shadow of Mr. Trump is so large that the other candidates, over time, would never be able to outrun his popularity.  It is the reason why Donald Trump has avoided the debate stage so far because he knows that shadow will do its job, and not allow any sunlight to improve the chances of the others trying to unseat his rule at the top of the party.

If he does lose his legal challenges or gets convicted, then I think the party's voters will choose someone else without too much controversy.  Governors Christie and DeSantis don't seem to draw in large numbers of support, but they do have leadership experience; however, they lack a lot of donor support, especially from the billionaire class to give them campaign momentum.  

Who does have some momentum? Governor Haley of course.  The backing of megadonors such as LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, JP MorganChase CEO Jamie Dimon, the late Charles Koch's political action committee, Americans for Prosperity Action, Citadel hedge fund founder Ken Griffin, and Home Depot co-founder Ken Langone all have thrown their backing to her candidacy.  Will that push her past the others mentioned in this piece to give her a shot at winning the nomination from Donald Trump?  I am not sure.  While the political establishment supports her, the party's base may not.  For it is they who provide their sons and daughters for endless wars and will see their jobs and wages disappear.  For them, Trump is their champion.

If the media wanted chaos and a real horserace to improve their ratings, wait until Mr. Trump cannot win the nomination because he could be incarcerated appealing any conviction.  Then the GOP primary and general election against President Biden will be off the rails.  Hold on, everybody!