June 15, 2026
Election season is upon us, with the early-round primary voting taking place on Tuesday, June 2nd. Anti-Trump fever is still going strong in California, but several interesting races and ballot initiatives have remained in the news for the past few months. The campaign to replace outgoing Governor Gavin Newsom has many suitors. Additionally, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass faced a surprising challenge from former reality TV star Spencer Pratt, who was making waves. What does the future hold for the legendary city of Los Angeles and the state of California?
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Several candidates ran for the open governor's position in California (61, to be exact). Still, the candidates that have received the lion's share of media coverage were Katie Porter (current member of Congress), Xavier Becerra (former member of Congress and Biden Administration Cabinet official), and Tom Steyer (hedge fund billionaire and environmentalist), Chad Bianco (San Bernardino County Sheriff), Steve Hilton (advisor to former British Prime Minister David Cameron and Fox News personality), Matt Mahan (San Jose Mayor), Antonio Villaraigosa (former Los Angeles Mayor) and Betty Yee (former State Controller of California).
Of those, the main frontrunners are Xavier Becerra, Steve Hilton, and Tom Steyer, according to recent polling, with Becerra leading in a few of them. Eric Swallwell, a member of Congress, was doing well in early polling, but he had to drop out of the race to deal with a flood of negative stories of infidelity and inappropriate behavior with female staffers. It was convenient for his opponents, especially fellow Democrat Xavier Becerra, who moved up in polling with Tom Steyer to potentially leave out the leading Republican candidate, Steve Hilton, in the state's "jungle primary." It means that only the top two in votes advance if no candidate receives 51% advance to the general election. Nothing to see here, of course.
California leans heavily Democratic, including voter registration, so the fact that two Republicans (Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco) are in the Top 6 of polling shows voter fatigue and disappointment with the party to some extent.
According to calmatters.org:
Xavier Becerra is critical of the Trump Administration's treatment of undocumented immigrants, specifically those within Los Angeles County, and is open to revising the state's climate change goals for fuel affordability and looking into freezing utility and insurance rates. His endorsements include the California Faculty Association, Equality California, and Planned Parenthood of California. He has been involved in politics at various levels at the state and congressional levels, including a stint as the Secretary of Health and Human Services under President Biden. He is connected to the Democratic machine and Establishment, and it might be hard for him to shake off being part of the "club" for younger voters. Mr. Becerra would have to show that he can improve the lives of Californians despite being a political insider.
Steve Hilton is a business-friendly conservative who would like to cut taxes for all Californians, primarily middle-class and wealthier residents. In addition, he would like to cut the state's fuel and gas regulations and open more land use for building more suburban, single-use homes. He is endorsed by President Trump, the Nisei Farmers League, and the Israeli-American Civic Action Network. What is interesting is that Mr. Hilton only became a U.S. citizen 5 years ago, having had a successful political career in England, culminating in an advisory role to British Prime Minister David Cameron, and later as a Fox News analyst. What is the driving factor for his elevation to prominence and sudden rise to challenge for the governorship of the state with the 4th largest economy in the world?
Tom Steyer wants to challenge the monopoly of the state's publicly traded utility companies, raise property taxes on business-owned properties, and explore collecting fees on AI use to help support workers displaced by new technologies. He has collected support and is endorsed by the California Nurses Association, California Environmental Voters, and California Teachers Association. He founded a successful hedge fund, Farallon Capital, was its co-senior managing partner, and left the firm in 2012 as a billionaire. He is passionate about protecting the environment and founded NextGen America to educate and advocate for environmental protections and legislative action on behalf of those causes. I thought he might have a chance, even as a billionaire, to convince young people and middle-class residents that he would be able to improve their lives with lower insurance premiums and gas prices. It doesn't appear to be the case that he was able to convince those target groups. Perhaps people were tired of seeing too many of his campaign commercials. Or did opposition from the utility companies play a part?
In the Los Angeles mayoral race, incumbent Karen Bass is fighting to lead the second-largest city again despite strong challenges from Spencer Pratt and nouveau-socialist Nithya Raman, a graduate of Harvard and MIT.
Mayor Karen Bass declared a State of Emergency after the damaging fires in January 2025. She introduced the Inside Safe program to remove the homeless throughout the city, fast-tracked new public affordable housing, and worked to improve tax incentives for film and television production companies. However, her primary negativity falls under her absence and perceived lack of leadership during the damaging wildfires that destroyed large sections of the Pacific Palisades, Altadena, and part of Los Angeles.
Nithya Raman is a current member of the Los Angeles City Council and a member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). In addition to financial recovery from the wildfires, she wants to focus her campaign on housing affordability, reviewing homeless policy failures (returning to the streets, high costs with little return for specific programs), protecting jobs for the entertainment industry, transportation efficiency, and street safety, along with protections for renters throughout the city, and increasing housing affordability. Initially, she had thrown her support behind Ms. Bass and then changed course and entered her candidacy right before the filing deadline.
Spencer Pratt is known primarily for being on a reality TV show ("The Hills"), making videos detailing his family's struggles after their home in the Palisades burned down, and his fight to rebuild that home despite the city's red tape, bureaucratic opposition, lack of support from insurance companies, and other challenges. He has gained traction through high visibility on various, mostly conservative podcasts, shows, and platforms. Mr. Pratt planned on being aggressive in tackling the city's homeless proliferation, saying it's primarily drug-related, and having a strong skepticism of the numerous non-profits making money from it. He also supports fiscal audits and government accountability.
Polls before June 2nd showed Karen Bass leading Nithya Raman and Spencer Pratt, 26%, to 25%, and 22%, respectively, and essentially within the 3% margin of error. Only the top two candidates in any race in the state can advance to a runoff for the general election, unless one of them gets at least 50+1% of the vote outright.
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Primary Election Night Early Results:
Mayor of Los Angeles
Karen Bass was expected to make the general election, since Los Angeles County and the city itself skew leftward politically. Los Angeles has not had a Republican mayor since Richard Riordan (1993-2001). I thought Spencer Pratt would make the runoff and qualify for the general election ballot. I didn't foresee the momentum that Nithya Raman had shown with the large surge of mail-in ballots breaking for her campaign. As he is known to do, President Trump seems to imply that there are major questions of fraud, specifically, why ballots counted after Election Day seemed to have been broken in larger numbers for Mr. Pratt. If late ballots show support only for certain candidates, it does not give confidence in the process overall. It also lends support to conspiracy theorists.
Governor of California
Before June 2nd, Xavier Becerra was leading in most polls, with Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer remaining constant in second and third position, respectively. California is notorious for taking its time to count ballots, which doesn't endear it to those in the state seeking efficiency and impartiality. If dramatic surges push candidates who were losing before mail-in and late ballots are counted into the runoff, it will undermine the perception of a fair election. Steve Hilton has only been an American citizen for 5 years, so it is quite shocking to see that, for a brief period, he was leading the state's campaign to replace the outgoing governor. Mail-in ballots did not benefit Mr. Steyer like they did for Nithya Raman, and so Mr. Becerra and Mr. Hilton are left to battle it out in the general election in November.
Conclusion:
As of June 9, 2026
Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/los-angeles-mayor-results
With mail-in ballots being counted a week after Election Day, Nithya Raman surged past Spencer Pratt and is now qualified for the general election, thereby knocking him out of the top two. He was in a healthy spot behind Ms. Bass on election night, but now he has been removed from the picture entirely. The Democrats' large voter registration advantage (55% to 15% approximately) in the city shows it was not a total surprise that any Republican in the field would eventually fall below two Democratic women of color in a very diverse metropolis. Republicans have won citywide before, but there is a negative perception nationwide that after-the-fact mail-in ballots shifted the winds decisively and were one-sided. Moreover, the fact that a distant third-place finisher on election night would make it into the final two spots for November, a week later, gave fuel to skeptics and cast doubt in conservative circles about its legitimacy. I doubt Mayor Bass wanted to campaign against an intelligent and educated Indian woman from Kerala. She would have preferred that her campaign focus on contrasts between her and Mr. Pratt that would have worked in her favor. Now she must figure out a way to beat another woman of color. It is a much more difficult challenge.
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